Pacific Region RCSD Projects & Activities (PAWS) Worksheet
Form used for a entering PAWS into Piko (Worsheet Version April 27 2012)
Acronym
Name/Title
Application of Latest IPCC Climate Models to Forecast Possible Marine Ecosystem Changes in the North Pacific Over the 21st Century (1 of 2)
Capability Area: Understanding Climate Variability and Change
Understanding Climate Variability and Change
Observing Systems, Data Stewardship, Data Services
Operational Products and Services
Research/Development
Historical Observations (hindcasts/climatologies)
Projections (modeling and downscaling)
Training and Capacity Building, Education, Outreach
Best Practices/Guidance
Decision Support Tools
Essential Climate Variable/Parameter
Atmospheric:
Surface (e.g., temp, precip, wind)
Upper-Air
Composition
Oceanic:
Surface (e.g., SST, SSH, salinity, ocean color)
Sub-surface (e.g., temp, salinity, nutrients, carbon, phytoplankton)
Terrestrial:
(e.g., surface water, glaciers and ice caps, land cover, biomass)
Time Frame
Seasonal (outlook)
Intra-annual to Decadal
Multi-decadal (scenarios)
Capability Area: Understanding Climate Impacts and Informing Adaptation
Understanding Climate Impacts and Informing Adaptation
Climate Impacts
Observing Systems, Data Stewardship, Data Services
Research/Development
Historical Observations (hindcasts/climatologies)
Projections (modeling and downscaling)
Climate Adaptation
Training and Capacity Building, Education, Outreach
Best Practices/Guidance
Decision Support Tools
Policies and Legislation
Assessment and Evaluation
Sector
Public Health and Safety
Fresh Water Resources
Energy
Transportation/Communication and Commerce
Community Planning and Development
Social and Cultural Resources
Agriculture and Fisheries
Recreation and Tourism
Ecosystems
Other
Status
Completed
Ongoing
Planned
Proposed
Focus Area
Fresh Water Resources and Drought
Coastal Inundation/Sea Level Rise, Extreme Weather, and Community Resilience
Marine and Terrestrial Ecosystems
Region/Locale
Central North Pacific
State of Hawaii
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands
Pacific Remote Islands
Western North Pacific
Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI)
Federated States of Micronesia (FSM)
Guam
Republic of Palau
Republic of Marshall Islands (RMI)
Other Western North Pacific
South Pacific
American Samoa
Australia
Cook Islands
Fiji
French Polynesia
Kiribati
New Zealand
Papua New Guinea (PNG)
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Tonga
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
Other South Pacific
Pacific Basin
Global
Description
Coral reef ecosystem health is highly impacted by ocean temperature variability. The NOAA Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center (PIFSC) Coral Reef Ecosystem Division (CRED) has been recording subsurface temperature data from various habitats (forereef, backreef, and lagoon) and depth ranges (1 – 35 m) in coral reef environments from around the Pacific in disparate oceanographic regimes for 10 years. To better understand subsurface temperature variability across various habitat, depth, and regional oceanographic conditions, these data need to be analyzed in the context of seasonal to interannual variability, for correlations of regional to basin scale forcing mechanisms, and compared to remotely sensed products, which is currently the scientific standard for assessing thermal conditions on coral reefs.
Objectives/Outcomes
Advance our understanding of subsurface thermal variability on coral reefs in the context of seasonal changes and interannual forcing across each of the US Pacific jurisdictions. Develop subsurface temperature climatologies for general habitat/depth ranges. Compare subsurface temperate data with remotely sensed data products (e.g. Coral Reef Watch [CRW] and the Coral Thermal Anomaly Database [CoRTAD]) to develop an algorithm which focuses on specific habitat/depth temperature variations and coral bleaching indices. Develop a predictive model for future temperature changes based on IPCC output for resource managers.
Lead Agencies, Institutions and Organizations
NOAA Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center (PIFSC)
Contacts(names, emails)
Jamie Gove, jamison.grove@noaa.gov Russell Brainard, rusty.brainard@noaa.gov
Partnering Agencies, Institutions, and Organizations
NOAA PIFSC Coral Reef Ecosystem Division (CRED) and University of Hawaii Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research (JIMAR) provides data access and availability to archived and on-going datasets. Concomitant biological data from the monitoring site may also be available. Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) will provide collaborative support including statistical expertise. Remotely sensed data products will be provided by NOAA NODC and NOAA CRW.
Required Resources
Postdoc or funds for a postdoc.
Projected Timelines
2-3 years
Feedback Mechanisms and Evaluation Measures
Presentations at scientific meetings and publications in peer reviewed journals. Outreach and dissemination of high-resolution temperature data and region specific thermal metrics for resource managers and stake-holders.
Url
Worksheet
PnA_MECNP1.doc
Keywords
Understanding Climate Variability and Change Observing Systems, Data Stewardship, Data Services Operational Products and Services Research/Development Historical Observations (hindcasts/climatologies) Training and Capacity Building, Education, Outreach Projections (modeling and downscaling) Sub-surface (e.g., temp, salinity, nutrients, carbon, phytoplankton) Intra-annual to Decadal Understanding Climate Impacts and Informing Adaptation Climate Impacts Historical Observations (hindcasts/climatologies) Ecosystems Marine and Terrestrial Ecosystems South Pacific Western North Pacific Central North Pacific Proposed